No investor should ever be surprised by the changes in market value that appear on his or her monthly brokerage firm statements. In general, media noise throughout the month should lead to a feel for what has been going on and investors should  understand that the prices of investment securities, particularly equities, are constantly changing. What happens in the future is, unpredictable, but understanding the past, and how it impacts the unique content of your portfolio, is essential to your long-run investment success, and your sanity. The IGVS Expectation Analyzer has been developed for investors who want to open their monthly statement envelop with a reasonable idea of what's inside.

Unfortunately, none of the main stream investment information provided by Wall Street is geared solely to IGVS investors and little is done to help investors in general deal with portfolios that are properly asset allocated and properly diversified (not the same thing). The IGVS Expectation Analyzer applies only to the equity bucket of your investment portfolio, and to portfolios that are designed and managed using The Working Capital Model. There's a lot more to the stock market than the DJIA or the S & P 500, as evidences by historical NYSE breadth figures from 1999 through August of 2007, when it was determined that an Investment Grade Value Stock Index was necessary.

• The Investment Grade Value Stock Index stopped rising in June of 2007, after a full year to the upside... it has been cycling downward ever since. However, the downturn seems to have moderated slightly over the past two months, with the curve turning modestly to the upside through April. 
• The IGVS Bargain Monitor for April reports a stronger IGVS market (that means fewer bargains) for the first time since its creation in December, 2007. Less than 25% of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are now down more than 20%, marking the second consecutive month of improvement. Still, buying opportunities are plentiful, as nearly 100 issues still qualify.
• IGVS Issue Breadth Statistics ran negative throughout the 1st Quarter of '08, extending the bad breadth (get it?) through a tenth consecutive month... clearly the effect of problems in the broadly defined financial, and related, sectors. BUT, the April numbers were actually positive, and possibly the beginning of the end of this prolonged correction in IGVS. There were as many up days as down days for the first time in nearly a year.
• IGVS New 52-Week High vs. New 52-Week Low Statistics have been dismal. In spite of the first positive month since June of 2007, there have been nearly five times more new 52-week lows than highs in the past five months. BUT, April was the first month in much too long that boasted as many days with new highs outnumbering new lows as vice versa.

Negatives: Taken all by itself, April was the best month in the IGVS marketplace in nearly a year. Still, the forces of evil are likely to stage a counter attack, and although the Expectation Analyzer elements have all moved tentatively upward, one month of smiles does not equal r-a-l-l-y!

Positives: There have been some very strong days recently in IGVS Issue Breadth, and the IGVSI appears to be moving north for a change. Short term trading opportunities have become more abundant and smart cash should be building (very slowly) in portfolios. Most of the bigger movements in recent days have been upward. Money has started to to leave some of the more speculative areas and seems to be looking for a home in quality securities. IRE (it's in the book) sensitive securities also showed some strength in April.