June 2007 to Sept 2009 & 2008 to 2009
< prices reduced for 2010 >
| IGVSI ~ The Investment Grade Value Stock Index ~ MCIMP | |||
| IGVSI Expectation Analyzer (07/10) | IGVSI Bargain Stock Monitor (07/10) |
Market
Cycle Investment Management June 2007 to Sept 2009 & 2008 to 2009 |
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| Investment Web Workshops & Articles | Request: Ten Year MCIM Performance Numbers |
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IGVSI Issue Breadth (07/10) | IGVSI New Highs & Lows (07/10) |
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| Investment Grade Value Stock (IGVS) Expectation Analyzer (thru 07/31/10) |
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No investor should ever be surprised by the changes in market value that appear on his or her monthly account statements. In general, media noise throughout the month should lead to a feel for what has been going on and investors should understand that the prices of investment securities, particularly equities, are constantly changing. What happens in the future is unpredictable, but understanding the past and how it impacts your unique portfolio, is essential to your long-run investment comfort --- and sanity. The IGVS Expectation Analyzer has been developed for investors who want to open their monthly statement envelop (or view it on line) with a reasonable idea of what's inside. |
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Unfortunately, none of the mainstream investment information provided by Wall Street is geared solely to IGVS investors and little is done to help investors in general deal with portfolios that are properly asset allocated and properly diversified. The IGVS Expectation Analyzer applies mostly to the equity bucket of your investment portfolio, and to Market Cycle Investment Management Portfolios --- i. e., those that are designed and managed using The Working Capital Model. There's a lot more to the stock market than the DJIA or the S & P 500, as evidenced by historical NYSE breadth figures from 1999 through August of 2007, when it was determined that an Investment Grade Value Stock Index was necessary. |
| The Expectation Analyzer has
four elements, each of which is explained and detailed elsewhere on this
website (and nowhere else in the world as far as I know). The
information provided is purposely sketchy, and not
intended as a prediction of anything. It is most relevant for portfolios
with at least 60% invested in Equities. If you study The
Brainwashing of the American Investor, you'll understand. ONE: The Investment Grade Value Stock Index stopped rising in June of 2007, after a full year to the upside --- then, after a nearly two year slide, it rebounded approximately 37% in 2009. The major Wall Street worshipped averages rose roughly 21%. After achieving a near All Time High on May 2nd (up 14% in 2010), the IGVSI has backed off sharply in a much needed correction. It is hard to believe that the market didn't respond to the incredible amount of bad news sooner than it did. Eventually (hopefully this November) the bad news will be replaced by good, non-inflationary, capitalism-friendly announcements. IGVSI should be prepared to react "WCMly" to any knee-jerk reactions in either direction. The IGVSI rebounded strongly into the black in July, AND both income security indices moved higher. All statement market values should be higher in July, unless withdrawals were excessive. TWO: The IGVS Bargain Monitor strengthened in July and most sectors bounced back nicely. Bargain stock numbers fell sharply and "bull pen" items were less plentiful. But there are still plenty of excellent investment opportunities. This is positive for statement market values, a reminder that short term profits always need to be realized and still an opportunity to add good companies to your portfolio.It should be clear that all forms of disbursements are detrimental to long-term portfolio health. Try to replace all disbursements made for pre-paid commissions, gifts, vacations, etc. --- you can only spend it once! THREE: IGVS Issue Breadth Statistics turned abruptly positive, posting the second best numbers of the year. Cumulative breadth numbers remain positive. A positive indicator for all portfolios containing equities. FOUR: IGVS New 52-Week High vs. New 52-Week Low Statistics returned from "the dark side" in July --- impressively! This is very positive for statement market values and for Working Capital growth. Negatives: No negative statistics, but one concern for future statements --- the continuing bad news about jobs and the economy. First five people who contact me get a free copy of "The Brainwashing of the American Investor". Positives: All statistics were positive, and impressively, in July. Working Capital continued to grow and base income production remains strong (neither are directly impacted by changes in market value). Income securities rose, dividends were maintained, and correction frowns were replaced with rally smiles --- for now. "Working Capital" should be up for the year, and "Smart Cash" levels should be rising again. Monthly Statement Prognosis: Most portfolio market values will be up from June levels, and those with higher income allocations will be at All Time High profit levels. There is absolutely no reason to think that economic conditions will not improve over the long run, and still every reason to add to portfolios to increase your Working Capital. Corrections are always the opportunity to sow the seeds of future profits --- and to increase portfolio cash flow. ALWAYS. In all environments, always try to add more to your portfolio than you remove. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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